Every American household is effectively paying $1,500 more this year because of tariffs — and that number could climb higher. The Tax Foundation estimates that the Trump administration’s tariffs amount to the largest US tax increase as a percentage of GDP since 1993, with the average household bearing a $1,500 burden in 2026 alone.
The current average tariff rate stands between 10% and 13% depending on the goods category — the highest since the 1940s. Some relief may come in mid-July when certain temporary Section 122 tariffs are set to expire, potentially dropping the effective rate to 6%–9%. But for now, prices on imported goods remain elevated.
Federal Reserve researchers tracking real-time price data found that tariffs implemented through November 2025 have already raised core goods PCE prices by 3.1% through February 2026 — accounting for essentially all of the excess inflation in that category. Tariffs contributed 0.8% to overall core PCE inflation.
The pain isn’t distributed equally. Top income earners bear a higher nominal tax burden, but lower-income households spend a larger share of their income on goods — making tariffs effectively regressive. Tomatoes, coffee, electronics, and clothing have seen among the steepest price increases.
What this means for your wallet: The $1,500 annual tariff hit works out to $125 per month in higher costs. But here’s the alarming part: economists warn the full passthrough hasn’t happened yet. Retailers and importers have been drawing down pre-tariff inventory buffers — once those run out through the spring and summer, prices on heavily imported goods could jump again.
Consumers shopping for back-to-school supplies, appliances, or electronics in the fall may be the first to feel the next wave of price increases as that buffer disappears from store shelves.
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